Wthe grass is always greener on the other side. What you don't have looks better. When you can't have it, it's even more so desirable. But is it really that switching is a greater move than staying put?
The saying goes: a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Technically it is not wrong since factoring the probability of catching the two birds, the certainty of having the one in hand definitely feels more sure than the uncertainty in the former probability. That is but of course the psyche of a typical man of temperament. A man of science-or math for that matter- may argue otherwise stating that the probability of catching the birds is critical. For a novice hunter, the obvious choice is to hold on to the caught bird that hadn't quite come by easily. For a skilled hunter, it becomes a different case. Why limit yourself when you know you have a good chance of getting more when you venture? Though you may possibly end up with nothing, those are quite against the odds. And if the odds are really against you, there is always a next chance it seems.
Another instance where venturing is superior is undoubtedly the Monty hall game. Updated individuals would know the superiority in switching, though it only offers a modest advantage. Yet this small advantage should not be underestimated! It is by minute advantages such as these that casinos and gambling trades make their big bucks. Moral of the story? Stay above the line and eventually, eventually you will be fine.
So now the question comes, to switch or not to switch?
Are the expectations really better for the switch?
This is my puzzle for now.
P.s. may the odd be ever in my favour
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